China Development Forum 2008 中国发展论坛 - 进入科学发展观时代的中国 China—Towards an Era with Scientific Outlook on Development New York, USA

About the Initiative

The China Development Forum (CDF) is CUASIA's flagship initiative to bring together a broad range of business, governmental and academic leaders, both from China and the United States, to engage in discussion and debate on key issues of China’s sustainable development. With a focus on the world's fastest developing and most dynamic region, the forum provides a great platform for the discussion of the pressing economic, political, social, and cultural issues that cut across traditional boundaries. CDF 2008 will be held at Columbia University in New York City.

The forum consists of a series of ongoing distinguished lectures and panel discussions throughout the year. The areas of focus spread economic, political, social, cultural, environmental, and many other important issues.

China Development Forum 2008 Keynote Lecutres:

The Challenges of China’s Banking Reform featuring Dr. JIANG Jianqing 姜建清博士 Chairman and President, Industrial and Comercial Bank of China (ICBC) Thursday, October 16, 2008 from 6:00 to 7:30pm The Cowin Center, Horace Mann Hall Room 147, Teachers College，Columbia University 120th Street and Broadway, New York, NY 10027

Dr. JIANG Jianqing is the Chairman and President of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) that is the largest commercial bank in the world. Dr. Jiang was appointed the present position in February 2000. He had been Vice Chairman and Executive Vice President of ICBC since August 1999. From June 1997 to 1999 he had been General Manager of ICBC Shanghai Municipal Branch. He was General Manager of Shanghai City Cooperative Bank (now "Bank of Shanghai") during December 1995 to June 1997.

The Impacts of Financial Crisis on China featuring Mr. DING Wei 丁玮先生 Executive Chairman, Corporate Finance Committee of China International Captital Corporation Limited (CICC) Friday, October 17, 2008 from 6:00 to 7:30pm Uris Hall Room 301, Columbia Business School 3022 Broadway at 117th Street, New York, NY 10027

Mr. Ding Wei, is from China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) which is the first joint venture investment bank in China and has consistently ranked No.1 on both the Non-Japan Asian IPO and international Chinese IPO league tables since 1997. Mr. Ding is Executive Chairman of Corporate Finance Committee of CICC. Also he holds the position of Managing Director and Head of Investment Banking of CICC. Before joining CICC, from 1987 to 1999, Mr. Ding had worked for the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in various capacities including lead economist and chief representative. After that, Mr. Ding served as Deutsche Bank’s China Head from 1999 to 2002. Mr. Ding will speech at Columbia U. on the October 17 th. He would like to share his opinions of the current financial crisis.

The Development of Chinese Financial Market: the Transition, Challenge and Opportunity by Mr. Ma Weihua President of China Merchants Bank

Mr. Ma Weihua is the President and CEO of China Merchants Bank(CMB). CMB is the most profitable bank in China with shares listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges. Among the Top 1000 World Banks for 200 7 published by The Bank er , CMB ranked the 1 01st by core capital and 114th by assets.  CMB’s sound performance and well-received products have won the market recognition both  domestically and internationally. The Bank has been named Best Bank in China, Best Retail Bank in China and Best Cash Management Bank in China by Euromoney, Asian Banker and AsiaMoney respectively. In November 2007, the Bank became the first Chinese bank approved by the US regulators to establish a branch in the US since 1991.  In addition, the Bank has been continuously included in Top 10 Valuable Listed  Companies in China and Top Ten Influential Brands in China.

Forum Overview

The past three decades have been witness to China’s remarkable progress in economic development and steadily increasing influence on the global geopolitical stage. As the nation currently enters a new era with a mission of applying the scientific outlook on development and building a “harmonious society”, many crucial questions remain to be solved, such as how China’s economic miracle can sustain itself and what the next steps of China’s economic system reform should be.

The China Development Forum will gather leaders and experts from China and the Unites States at Columbia University in 2008. The participants will share their ideas about China’s development and the global economy, review the changes in Chinese business environment, and explore the opportunities for China’s foreign partners. Using the framework of the USA-China Strategic Economic Dialogue and the 17 th National Party Congress, these experts and leaders will direct thought-provoking discussions about the ever-changing status of USA-China collaborative relations in economy, society, health, and culture.

 过去三十年中国卓越的经济发展持续地影响全球性地缘政治。当国家正在进入一个建立“和谐社会”为使命的新的时代，许多关键的问题留待去解决，包括中国的经济奇迹怎样持续发展以及中国下一步的改革应该是什么。

2008 中国发展论坛汇集来自中美领导和专家于哥伦比亚大学。参加者将分享他们关于中国的发展和全球性经济的想法，回顾中国商业环境的变化，并且探索中国与国外合作的机会。这些专家和领导将引导中美在经济、社会、健康和文化方面加强合作进行令人深思的讨论。论坛包括主要演讲、公开讨论等。

Organizers

The China Development Forum is an initiative of Columbia University Asia-Pacific Development Society (CUASIA). Our events are supported by many Columbia University schools and departments, such as the Graduate School of Arts and Science, the Graduate School of Business, School of International and Public Affairs, The Jerome A. Chazen Institued of International Business in Columbia Business School, the Weatherhead East Asian Institute. We also receive co-sponsorship from prominent partners, such as the Renwen Society of China Institute in America, Columbia Business School Greater China Society (GCS), Columbia SIPA Greater China Initiative (GCI), New York University Chinese Students and Scholars Association and Columbia China Law Business Association (CCLBA).

Individual Volunteers

If you wish to work as a volunteer for the forum, please email owner-cuasia@columbia.edu with your basic profile or CV. Experience is helpful but passion and the desire to serve the community are more important.

Corporate

Corporate sponsorship is very welcomed. Please contact us for more details.

Inquiries

Please direct your inquiries to owner-cuasia@columbia.edu

Topics of the forum

Balancing the Chinese economy

China has become a global economic power over recent decades. However, the downside of the economic boom has loomed largely due to the unequal regional development and environmental issues, etc. The dizzyingly rapid growth is most noticeable in China’s urban part, while the western region lags far behind the costal and central areas. The development imbalance also lies in the composition of China’s GDP which is heavily tilted toward investment and net exports while the domestic consumption remains low. Rectifying these imbalances in a huge country like China will require not only governmental regulation, but also the participation from numerous Chinese and overseas business and the Chinese people. How should China work towards solving these imbalance problems?

中国经济的平衡发展

在过去几十年里中国已经成为全球经济的主导力量。然而，繁荣发展后的中国经济已呈现下行趋势。这主要归因于中国经济的不平衡发展和环境退化等问题。为世界所称奇的高速经济发展主要集中在中国的城镇地区。而中国的西部地区则远远落后于东部沿海地区和中部地区。同时，经常项目和资本项目持续双顺差以及投资和消费关系不协调也是造成经济不平衡发展的原因。整顿类似于中国这样一个大国的经济发展不平衡问题将不仅要求政府战略方针的调整，也要求国内外企业和中国人民的积极参与。中国将如何解决这些经济发展的不平衡问题？

Equity Strategies

China's Yuan-denominated A-share market has soared about 250% since the beginning of 2006, but analysts have different opinions about its future. While some caution that the inflating market bubble may burst at any time, others say the A-share market is just at the initial stage of a "Golden Decade". (A-shares refer to those issued by domestically listed firms for Chinese investors.) Defying a warning by former United States Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan that China's stock market is a speculative bubble that will burst, domestic investors continue to bet on Chinese equities. Also, Greater China as a whole has witnessed tremendous growth and has been attracting many large-scale and sophisticated investors from all over the world. Hong Kong and Singapore have become the new havens for hedge fund firms that play on both complicated strategies and the blossoming IPO market. What will be the next phase of development in the equity world of Greater China?

股权策略

中国人民币统治的A 股市场自从2006 年初已经上涨了250% 。但是分析家对此有不同的看法。尽管存在着股市有极强泡沫化倾向并将可能随时破灭的警告，大多人认为现在的牛市只是A 股市场黄金十年的开始。美国联邦储备委员会前主席阿兰. 格林斯潘就中国股市过热的状况提出了警告。他指出中国的股票市场具备出现泡沫的全部特征。但中国的股民对此不予理睬，继续非理性地投资中国股票。同时中国股票市场的暴涨刺激境外资金大规模地流入。香港和新加坡已经成为海外对冲基金的天堂。这些基金公司在蓬勃发展的公开募股集资市场中游刃有余地对付复杂的策略。中国股票市场的下一个阶段将会是什么？

Development and Regulation for China's Financial System

The Chinese government has paid more attention to regulate the financial industry to keep away financial risk and safeguard the stability of the financial system. However, as enhancement of economic and financial globalization takes place in China, how can the Chinese government and major financial players construct and perfect the current framework? On the banking side, China has undergone significant changes in the last two decades and banks are now much more like their Western counterparts. With the IPOs of the four state commercial banks, and the increase in number of foreign strategic equity stakes in Chinese banks, domestic and foreign investors have fostered much hope in and speculation about Chinese banks and the financial system as a whole. Compounded with the complexity of China's currency policy and the importance of raising interest rates, government regulators must take all factors and effects into consideration when implementing new changes to ensure stable growth amidst China's gradual integration into the world.

中国金融体系的发展与规范化

中国政府已经投入很大精力整顿规范金融市场，以防止金融风险确保金融体系的稳定性。然而随着经济金融全球化的不断发展，中国政府和主要的金融投资者如何能够构建和完善当前的结构？在银行业方面，中国在过去二三十年中发生了巨大的变化。现在中国的银行越发类似于西方银行。随着中国四大商业银行的上市，以及国外大型策略性投资者的增加，中国国内和国外的投资者对中国的银行业和整个金融体系都报以极大的期望甚至追捧。针对中国货币政策的复杂性和利率浮动的重要性，中国政府管理者在执行新的改革方针时必须考虑一切因素和影响。以确保中国经济在全球一体化过渡时期能够持续稳定增长。

Energy Concerns, Foreign Buyouts and National Economic Security

China has surpassed Japan to become the second largest consumer and importer of crude oil in the world. Its voracious consumption of energy of all kinds in the past few years, coupled with volatility in OPEC countries, has raised concerns about the sustainability of its economic growth. As oil supplies remain stagnant, rising demand drives up prices in the international market. The shortage that ensues has forced some factories to shut down occasionally. Moreover, the sharp spike in China's demand for oil comes at a time when coal, the traditional pillar of China's energy consumption structure, is already straining from shortage problems. China's appetite for energy shows no sign of abating as its economy is increasingly anchored by energy-intensive industries. Yet, energy-saving measures, while high on the agenda of the government, cannot be instituted soon enough to alleviate the pressure on the international energy market. China’s attempts to shield its economy from the vicissitudes of the open market by stepping up exploration projects, buying shares in foreign oil fields and pipelines, and locking up energy resources from governments shunned by the West. The panel will also address energy security, a new subject in Chinese strategic thinking. Attempts at securing additional sources of oil and establishing a strategic reserve have had a mixed record of successes and failures.

能源，外汇储备和中国的经济安全性

中国已经超越日本成为世界上第二大原油消费国和原油进口国。在过去几年内伴随着石油输出国组织的反复无常，中国对各类石油产品的消耗几近贪婪的程度。这引起更多对中国经济增长可持续性的关注。当石油供给处于停滞局面时，保持增长态势的石油需求必然驱动国际市场原油价格的上涨。由此引发的燃料不足已经迫使一些工厂时不时停业。进而当中国传统能源煤的供给同样面临困境的时候，中国对原油需求的一时间急剧增加。如果考虑到中国当前能源高消耗型工业为主导的经济模式，就不难理解中国对能源的巨大需求。尽管中国政府大力提倡节约能源，相关的措施却不可能足够快地被执行，这也就不能缓和对当今世界原油市场的压力。中国通过加快开发项目，投资国际原油生产地，突破西方的能源封锁，来试图保护自身经济不会面临开放市场的衰败结果。本次论题也将讨论能源安全的问题。这也是中国政府需要思考的一个战略性议题。试图确保原油来源和建立原油战略储备既有成功也有失败的记录。

Entrepreneurship, Technological Innovation & PE / VC in China

China’s private equity sector is growing quickly, and more capital is flowing into country while domestic A-share capital markets are booming. Some of the biggest and most powerful dealmakers in the United States have found a way to keep the buyout boom going: by aggressively pushing into China while buyouts were slowing in the United States because of turmoil in the credit markets, How does this rapid change affect foreign firms investing in China? Where are the best opportunities for investment? How is this booming market affecting both local and foreign investors? Are Chinese private equity firms and hedge funds challenging foreign entities?

中国的企业家，技术革新，私有产权和风险资本

中国的私有产权区段正飞速增长，更多的资本流入国内，国内的A 股交易市场持续兴旺。美国一些最大，最具竞争力的交易中间人已经找到了如何让收购投资持续繁荣的途径：大力积极地进军中国市场，在美国的收购投资因为信贷市场的动荡而减缓之时。这一系列巨大的变化是如何影响外国公司的在华投资？当下最好的投资机遇在何方？繁荣的交易市场在如何影响国内国外的投资者？中国的私有产权企业和套利基金能否对国外的企业和基金构成挑战？

Demand for Luxury Goods

Currently there are over 500,000 people in China with a personal wealth of $1 million or more, which is totally different from 10 or 20 years ago. Along with the surge of the economy comes a class of ultra-wealthy individuals and families that can afford world-class luxury goods and many multinational Luxury retailing companies have seen the great business opportunities in the booming Chinese market.

奢侈品需求

现今中国个人资产过千万的超过50 万人，对比十几年前的中国，这个数目增长惊人。随着经济崛起，这些“超富裕阶层”的个人和家庭能够买得起世界一流的奢侈品牌。许多跨国奢侈品零售企业已经在繁荣的中国市场上看到了无限商机。

Media and Advertisement Market in China

China has one of the most interesting, baffling, and promising media markets in the world. Advertising market in China keeps growing 40% year-on-year, estimated market size is now 13-20 billion US dollars. TV and print are the biggest, radio and magazine are growing and interactive media is seen as new opportunity. To be sure the media regulatory environment has changed profoundly in the last five years and a lot of foreign investors have benefited. However, the media landscape is much more complicated than that of other consumer goods. Apart from the ownership of editorial content, the other biggest obstacle to foreign investment is the arcane distribution system. But the good news is that the General Administration of Press and Publication (GAPP) announced in October that 13 Chinese media companies would be listed on the stock market by end of 2007. Those newspapers that might be able to list its shares on stock markets will have to be individual enterprise rather than the traditional newspaper publishers. The marvelous impact on China's media industry is truly to be expected. As for Chinese media companies, would this be more opportunity or challenge? For those who have already established their brand in China’s market, such as Star TV, Caijing magazine, how would they see their next few years in China’s market, regarding generating their ads revenue? How would new foreign investors take this opportunity to start make their first movement?

中国的传媒广告市场

中国拥有一个全世界最有趣，最令人困惑和最有前途的传媒市场。中国的广告业年增长率达40% ，预估现今市场价值约130-200 亿美元。电视和出版物依旧占据最大份额，广播和杂志份额正持续增长，与此同时互动媒体成为新的潮流。毫无疑问，在过去的五年中，媒体规管环境发生了深刻的变化，许多国外投资者从中受益。 然而，媒体行业较之其他消费行业更为复杂。除了社论内容归属问题，国外投资者面临的另一个巨大的阻碍是神秘的发布系统。 令人振奋的是就在今年十月出版总署宣布中国的13 家传媒公司将于2007 年底集体上市。能够在股市上公布其份额的那些报纸将必须是个人企业而不是传统新闻社。这一举动对中国传媒市场产生的影响将非常令人期待。对于中国的传媒公司，这是机遇还是挑战？对于哪些已经成功在中国市场树立起品牌的公司，比如 Star TV, 财经杂志，他们会如何，就创造广告收入而言，看待未来几年在中国市场的机会。而新的国外投资者将如何把握这次机遇去开始他们的第一次投资尝试？